Originally published in the Deseret News.

Economist Natalie Gochnour is director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah and is an associate dean in the David Eccles School of Business. She has a long history of public service and continues to be a key economic advisor to state political and business leaders.

We asked this seasoned professional to answer six questions in relation to the economic difficulties presented by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and how Utah will weather the storm in 2021.

Originally published in the Deseret News.

The economic pain from COVID-19 continues to build. Since late February, approximately 125,000 Utahns (8% of the workforce) have been furloughed or laid off. More job separations are certainly on the way. We are all asking, “When will the economic misery end?”

Perhaps the most important insight regarding this question came from the nation’s top immunologist, Dr. Anthony Fauci. He said, “You don’t make the timeline; the virus makes the timeline.” With this in mind, I’d like to share insights on common economic questions.

How much worse will this get?

Let’s be honest … it’s hard to imagine it getting much worse. In 42 days, Utah wiped out nearly all of the jobs that our nation-leading economy created in the past three years. More job losses will follow, but I expect April 2020 will be the highpoint for job losses, with each subsequent month tapering down. The leveling off will occur because we now operate with more information, more adaptation and innovation, and more financial and regulatory assistance. We will slowly claw our way back, moving from the urgent phase, to the stabilization phase, and ultimately to recovery.

Originally published in the Deseret News.

The onslaught of information about the coronavirus can do as much harm as good, particularly when it comes to the economy. In what some have called an “infodemic” Utahns like me are asking questions:

• How do I keep myself and the people I love safe?
• What sources of information should I trust?
• Is our response proportionate to the risk?
• Are we overreacting and hurting our economy in the process?
• How do we synchronize the public health imperative with sound economic reasoning?

I can’t answer these questions with precision, but it’s clear the virus will impact some of us, while an economic slowdown will impact all of us. It’s important we take calm and rationale actions to minimize the economic impact even as we follow public health guidelines.

With this in mind, I’ve crafted six economic rules to help Utah during a pandemic. The rules are the economic equivalent of hand-washing and not touching your face.

Originally published in the Deseret News.

The results are in. Super Tuesday was super for Utah. Candidates campaigned here, voters participated in record numbers, vote by mail worked and Utah’s voice became relevant on the national stage. Kudos to the Utah Legislature, Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox (state’s chief election officer), state election officials, county clerks and the political parties that made this success happen.

Originally published in the Deseret News.

Former Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt tells a memorable story about being at an intersection in downtown Salt Lake City and seeing two contrasting bumper stickers. One said, “Earth First! We’ll mine the other planets later.” Another said, “Save the planet. Kill yourself.”

These extreme statements, as inappropriate as they are, convey a timely lesson — a lesson that is needed as the Utah Legislature meets, Utahns vote in their first Super Tuesday election and a competitive gubernatorial race heats up. The lesson? Seek common ground.

Originally published in the Deseret News.

After the Iowa caucus mishap, a friend of mine tweeted: “The Iowa caucuses were a perfect symbolic start to a Presidential campaign where Democrats will pretend that results don’t matter and @realDonaldTrump will focus over and over on his results.”

I thought it was a clever tweet for two reasons. First, the Iowa caucuses were a disaster and a worthy target for criticism. Second, a common refrain about President Trump is disdain for his tone and character, and enthusiasm for his results. After all, aren’t we experiencing the longest sustained economic expansion in U.S. history?

Indeed, we are, but the U.S. economic expansion is more than a Donald Trump story, just like the Great Recession was more than a George W. Bush story. Economic expansions, like the current cycle, often cross over presidential terms. Presidents also exert less control over the economy than many people imagine.

Originally published in the Deseret News.

I love to shop at Harmons grocery stores. Like so many others, I enjoy the salad bar, homemade soups and salsas, extraordinary cheese selection, high quality meats and fresh produce. They are very good at what they do, and I love that they are locally owned.

Because I count on Harmons to provide groceries for my family, it gave me pause when they got involved with tax policy. Even under the best circumstances, tax policy is complex and difficult to address in representative government; it’s almost impossible to address at a checkout stand.